Smoke 'n Mirrors 'n Consultancy
18/09/09 11:22
Smoke n Mirrors n Consultancy
Given the recent performance by Derren Brown (busting the UK National Lottery), the article on the behaviour of management consultants reminded me of the quote by Niels Bohr, prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
In both cases the important observation is that they give the illusion of prediction usually disguised with misdirection and hoopla. In the case of the illusionist this is easy to spot, the beautiful assistant(s), the use of cameras, the fact that if they could make the prediction they'd keep quiet and just take the money etc etc etc. In the case of management consultants the misdirection takes similar forms, smart suits, flashy presentations and the use of complex models with little if any predictive value.
Interestingly the use of quantitative methods outlined in the article appears to take the form of pure data analysis and lacks any attempt to provide operationalisable predictions, a function of measurement systems identified as critical by Michael Hammer. If the article is a fair reflection of the activities being undertaken then it is unsurprising that very little value (and in some cases actual loss) was derived by customers.
It is hard to see that this publication will add anything to the commentary on the behaviour of management consultants that has not already been exposed in the excellent 'Rip-off!: The Scandalous Inside Story of the Management Consulting Money Machine' by David Craig.
To move beyond a management consultancy that delivers more than your average witch doctor requires orgnisations to evolve - a transition that medicine has been making for the last couple of hundred years. In medicine, the move to evidence based interventions has been critical (although some quite reasonably question whether that has been successfully completed). Unfortunately this evolution requires an ability to generate successful predictive theories and this is hard. It requires significantly more quantitative insight than an ability to hook an excel spreadsheet up to a database and fill an expensive suit.
Chris Tofts (chris.tofts@concinnitas.co.uk)
Given the recent performance by Derren Brown (busting the UK National Lottery), the article on the behaviour of management consultants reminded me of the quote by Niels Bohr, prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
In both cases the important observation is that they give the illusion of prediction usually disguised with misdirection and hoopla. In the case of the illusionist this is easy to spot, the beautiful assistant(s), the use of cameras, the fact that if they could make the prediction they'd keep quiet and just take the money etc etc etc. In the case of management consultants the misdirection takes similar forms, smart suits, flashy presentations and the use of complex models with little if any predictive value.
Interestingly the use of quantitative methods outlined in the article appears to take the form of pure data analysis and lacks any attempt to provide operationalisable predictions, a function of measurement systems identified as critical by Michael Hammer. If the article is a fair reflection of the activities being undertaken then it is unsurprising that very little value (and in some cases actual loss) was derived by customers.
It is hard to see that this publication will add anything to the commentary on the behaviour of management consultants that has not already been exposed in the excellent 'Rip-off!: The Scandalous Inside Story of the Management Consulting Money Machine' by David Craig.
To move beyond a management consultancy that delivers more than your average witch doctor requires orgnisations to evolve - a transition that medicine has been making for the last couple of hundred years. In medicine, the move to evidence based interventions has been critical (although some quite reasonably question whether that has been successfully completed). Unfortunately this evolution requires an ability to generate successful predictive theories and this is hard. It requires significantly more quantitative insight than an ability to hook an excel spreadsheet up to a database and fill an expensive suit.
Chris Tofts (chris.tofts@concinnitas.co.uk)